will look like this on the streets of Tehran just before the American
blitz starts. They say Iran is a beautiful place, but bright lights
will probably not burn there for many years, and the country, like Iraq
before it, will be poisoned by radiation from DU munitions, if not actual
nuclear bombs, for thousands of years to come.
people say George Bush is only bluffing, but what will he do if the
Iranians keep calling his bluff? He has no soldiers left to invade
and occupy them, so he can only try to bomb them back to the Stone
that happens we can probably write off the Australian contingent in
the South of Iraq. In the slugging match between the US Coalition
and the vast Iranian army and its Iraqi Shiite allies, our piddling
little bunch and the beleaguered British forces on which they depended
for air and artillery support would go at a discount. Thered
be a savage irony to that because Howard thought he was keeping them
out of harms way by basing them in the south. The last thing
he wanted was the electoral liability of diggers coming home in boxes
even if they were volunteers.
disaster would doom the Howard government, but most Australians wouldnt
be thinking about our hapless soldiers, theyd be frantic about
the price of petrol if they could get it at all.
oil production is flatlining but demand is heading north. Peak oil
is starting to bite. Soon the decline will set in. Everybody in the
business of buying crude oil knows there just aint any spare
environment, if Mad King George orders a US attack on Iran, or if
the crazy-mad Israeli Zionists go in first and drag the Yanks behind
them, therell be global mayhem. The price of oil will go through
the roof. Forget $60 a barrel, or even $75, like it was a few months
ago, well be glad to pay $150 a barrel, if we can get the stuff
translate to rationing and petrol way over two bucks a litre at the
pump. Filling up the car whenever you want? Petrol at $1.20 a litre?
Say goodbye to all that.
not that Iran itself produces a big proportion of the worlds
oil. Of the roughly 80 million barrels consumed each day, Iran contributes
only a couple of million. But take that capacity out of the system
and its disaster time.
take this possums word for it, Take Dr Samsam Bakhtiaris.
The man is a senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company and
an advisor to the UKs Oil Depletion Analysis Centre. In July
last year he said this to a Senate committee in Canberra:
would be impacting heavily on the price is the psychological impact
of any geopolitical happening, whether in the Persian Gulf or in South-East
the slightest impact geopolitically will have
enormous consequences. If you had in Saudi Arabia, for example, or
anywhere else, some two million to three million barrels of spare
capacitythat you usually had beforethen people would not
be so worried about this geopolitical impact. But you do not have
spare capacity anymore. I do not believe the Saudis have any spare
capacity today, although they say they have a million or one-and-a-half
million barrels. They have no spare capacity. Nobody, in my opinionneither
OPEC, nor non-OPEC, nor the Russians, nor the Saudishas any
spare capacity. It would have an enormous impact. The price could
then, of course, a war against Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz,
at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, to shipping, and 17 million barrels
of oil a day pass through the straits. The only alternatives are a
couple of pipelines, but these would probably be knocked out in the
first few days of the fighting. And the war could drag on, embroiling
the Chinese and Russians who are Iranian allies.
this is a long way from the average punters thoughts. Prices
have gone up and then come down a bit, theres been some pain,
but on the whole, most people think it can be managed. They think
that something will come up, some alternative fuel or something, thatll
solve the problem. They dont have a clue how massive the underlying
can you blame them? After all, the mainstream media and ninety-five
per cent of the politicians are positively hostile to any discussion
of peak. As Dr Bakhtiari told the Senate committee:
Nobody likes the idea of peak oil. Firstly, you have the politicians.
Naturally, a politician will never say that there is such a thing
as peak oil. It is suicide to give bad news so a politician will never
do that. He will always say, The International Energy Agency
says that we will be having 118 million barrels in 2030 so why worry?
you have the media. The media does not like peak oil. Why? There is
no sponsorship for peak oil. The oil companies do not like peak oil
because you should not say that your soup is cold; you should always
say that it is very hot and very tasty, yes? So nobody wants to hear
of this phenomenon.
NOW READ ...
your brain Morris, take the train
Oils inexorable decline must drive Sydney public transport reforms
By MATT MUSHALIK and GAVIN GATENBY
29 September 2005
Possum News Network
History will record that the Carr Governments greatest failure
was that it squandered the opportunity to make timely preparations
for peak oil. Few Australians are familiar with this phenomena,
but its ramifications will seep into every aspect of political and
social life in the coming years.
For a whole decade state cabinet ignored a sincere and increasingly
strident warning from oil industry experts: the maximum possible level
of world oil production was imminent and would be followed by inexorable
decline. It remains to be seen whether the Iemma cabinet will face
the issue squarely or remain in denial. ...